2024 United States presidential election in Ohio
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| Elections in Ohio |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Ohio voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]
A heavily-populated Midwestern state partly within the Rust Belt, Ohio has been considered a vital bellwether state for decades and has been decided by single digits at the presidential level since 1992, but has been trending towards the political right in recent years. The state voted significantly more Republican than the U.S. at-large when Donald Trump carried the state by just over 8 points in the past two elections despite polls showing a tight race in both cycles, especially 2020, in which the state backed the losing presidential candidate for the first time in 60 years. The GOP's overwhelming success in Ohio during the 2022 midterms has further testified to the state's rightward shift and the possible death of its bellwether and swing-state distinctions. Today a slightly to moderately red state, Ohio is expected to be less heavily contested in 2024 than in the past several presidential election cycles, with major news organizations predicting the state to lean towards the GOP candidate (presumably Trump).[2]
The election will be held concurrently with a U.S. Senate race in Ohio which, despite the state's current Republican lean, is expected to be competitive, among other state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3] If he wins without the state again, he will become the first president since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 to win another term without carrying the state. If he loses Ohio by double digits, he will be the first presidential candidate to do so since fellow Democrat Michael Dukakis in 1988.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Ohio Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside the Arizona, Illinois, Kansas primaries.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 461,558 | 87.1% | 124 | ||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 68,629 | 12.9% | 3 | ||
| Total: | 530,187 | 100.0% | 127 | 16 | 133 |
| Source:[4] | |||||
Republican primary
The Ohio Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 889,001 | 79.2% | 79 | ||
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 161,357 | 14.4% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 37,904 | 3.4% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 19,896 | 1.8% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 14,412 | 1.3% | |||
| Total: | 1,122,570 | 100.0% | 79 | 79 | |
| Source: [5] | |||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[6] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[7] | Likely R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Likely R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] | Likely R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[10] | Likely R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[11] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Emerson College[A] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 55% | 45% | – |
| Emerson College[A] | January 23–25, 2024 | 1,844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 47% | 36% | 17% |
| Emerson College/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | 6% |
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 40% | 15%[b] |
| Emerson College | October 2–4, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 33% | 23% |
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 40% | 3% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Ohio Northern University/Lucid | October 11–15, 2022 | 668 (LV) | – | 55% | 35% | 10% |
| Emerson College | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| Emerson College | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Emerson College | August 15–16, 2022 | 925 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 39% | 8% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[B] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Emerson College[A] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 47% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Emerson College/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 13% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden. vs. Robert F Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 32% | 13% | 11% |
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 35% | 11% | 12%[c] |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 45% | 36% | 9% | 10% |
| Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 38% | 2% | 16% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 42% | 34% | 6% | 6% | 12% |
- Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
- Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 33% | 16% |
- Donald Trump vs. Gretchen Whitmer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 34% | 15% |
- Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 36% | 30%[d] |
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 41% | 21%[e] |
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| Emerson College | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Emerson College | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
- Ron Desantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron Desantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 37% | 2% | 22% |
- Chris Christie vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Chris Christie Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 33% | 39% | 28% |
- Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 38% | 24%[f] |
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 37% | 38% | 25% |
- Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 39% | 23% |
- Generic Republican vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Causeway Solutions | May 19–27, 2023 | 1,639 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 33% | 22% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Ohio
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Some Other Candidate at 5%; Undecided at 10%
- ^ Some Other Candidate at 2%; Undecided at 10%
- ^ Some Other Candidate at 8%; Undecided at 22%
- ^ Some Other Candidate at 5%; Undecided at 16%
- ^ Some Other Candidate at 8%; Undecided at 16%
- Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
- ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 29, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "Ohio Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
- ^ "Ohio Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
