2024 California's 16th congressional district election
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The 2024 California's 16th congressional district election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 16th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries.
The 16th district is based in Silicon Valley, including portions of Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, extending from the southwestern San Francisco Bay Area through the Santa Cruz Mountains to the Pacific coast. Its largest cities are San Jose, Mountain View, and Palo Alto.[1] Joe Biden won the district with 75.4% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election, making it a safe Democratic district.[2]
The incumbent is Democrat Anna Eshoo, who was re-elected with 57.8% of the vote in 2022 against another Democrat.[3] She did not seek re-election.[4] A wide field of 11 candidates filed for the race to succeed her, with 9 Democrats and 2 Republicans joining the race. The primary election was very close, with initial returns showing a heated battle for the two spots in the general election. A week after the primary, media outlets reported that former San Jose mayor Sam Liccardo had taken the first spot. However, it was unclear which candidate he would face in the general election, as state assemblyman Evan Low and Santa Clara County supervisor Joe Simitian repeatedly traded the second-place position during the vote count process.[5]
By April 3, both Low and Simitian tied with 30,249 votes each in the final account and were expected to advance to the general election under a stipulation by California elections code regarding a second-place tie in primary elections, except in the case of a potential recount.[5] Santa Clara and San Mateo counties certified the primary results on April 4.[6] However, a recount was requested by two voters shortly thereafter. The recount request was controversial, with Low's campaign accusing Liccardo of being behind it.[7]
The primary results marked the second time since California transitioned to a nonpartisan blanket primary system in 2012 in which there was a second-place tie in a primary election and a potential three-candidate general election, the first being the 2016 election for California's 62nd State Assembly district.[a][5]
Primary election
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Candidates
Advanced to general
- Sam Liccardo (Democratic), former mayor of San Jose (2015–2023)[8]
Potentially advance to general, pending recount
- Evan Low (Democratic), state assemblyman from the 26th district (2014–present)[9]
- Joe Simitian (Democratic), Santa Clara County supervisor from the 5th district (1996–2000, 2013–present) and former state senator from the 11th district (2004–2012)[10]
Eliminated in primary
- Joby Bernstein (Democratic), financial advisor and graduate student[11]
- Peter Dixon (Democratic), cybersecurity executive and former U.S. State Department staffer[12]
- Rishi Kumar (Democratic), former Saratoga city councilor and runner-up for this district[b] in 2020 and 2022[11]
- Julie Lythcott-Haims (Democratic), Palo Alto city councilor[12]
- Ahmed Mostafa (Democratic), attorney[13]
- Peter Ohtaki (Republican), former mayor of Menlo Park and perennial candidate[11]
- Karl Ryan (Republican), businessman[11]
- Greg Tanaka (Democratic), Palo Alto city councilor and candidate for this district in 2022[13]
Declined
- Josh Becker (Democratic), state senator from the 13th district (2020–present)[14] (running for re-election)[13]
- Marc Berman (Democratic), state assemblyman from the 23rd district (2016–present)[15] (running for re-election)[13]
- Anna Eshoo (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative[4] (endorsed Simitian)[16]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Joby Bernstein (D) | $140,836[c] | $59,832 | $81,003 |
| Peter Dixon (D) | $2,792,923[d] | $1,894,060 | $898,862 |
| Rishi Kumar (D) | $289,503[e] | $186,637 | $101,756 |
| Sam Liccardo (D) | $2,206,228 | $988,382 | $1,217,845 |
| Evan Low (D) | $1,369,551[f] | $1,024,180 | $345,371 |
| Julie Lythcott-Haims (D) | $595,779 | $443,035 | $152,744 |
| Ahmed Mostafa (D) | $201,773 | $127,469 | $74,303 |
| Joe Simitian (D) | $951,156 | $932,783 | $588,744 |
| Greg Tanaka (D) | $15,080[g] | $13,182 | $1,898 |
| Peter Ohtaki (R) | $54,169[h] | $32,982 | $21,187 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[17] | |||
Endorsements
Peter Dixon (D)
- U.S. Representatives
- Jason Crow, CO-06 (2019–present)[18]
- Don Davis, NC-01 (2023–present)[18]
- Chris Deluzio, PA-17 (2023–present)[18]
- Jared Golden, ME-02 (2019–present)[18]
- Seth Moulton, MA-6 (2015–present)[19]
- Pat Ryan, NY-18 (2022–present)[18]
- Mikie Sherrill, NJ-11 (2019–present)[18]
- Organizations
- New Politics (co-founder)[20]
- VoteVets[21]
- With Honor Fund[22]
Sam Liccardo (D)
- U.S. Representatives
- Linda Sánchez, CA-38 (2003–present)[23]
- Local officials
- Matt Mahan, mayor of San Jose (2023–present)[24]
- Organizations
- Newspapers
Julie Lythcott-Haims (D)
- U.S. Senators
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013–present)[31]
- U.S. Representatives
- Lois Frankel, U.S. Representative from Florida (2013–present)[32]
- Organizations
Rishi Kumar (D)
- Organizations
Evan Low (D)
- U.S. Senators
- Laphonza Butler, U.S. Senator from California (2023–present)[36]
- Statewide officials
- Eleni Kounalakis, Lieutenant Governor of California (2019–present)[37]
- Ricardo Lara, California Insurance Commissioner (2019–present)[37]
- Fiona Ma, California State Treasurer (2019–present)[37]
- U.S. Representatives
- Becca Balint, VT-AL (2023–present)[38]
- Judy Chu, CA-28 (2009–present)[39]
- Jimmy Gomez, CA-34 (2017–present)[38]
- Pramila Jayapal, WA-07 (2017–present)[40]
- Ro Khanna, CA-17 (2017–present)[9]
- Mark Pocan, WI-02 (2013–present)[40]
- Jamie Raskin, MD-08 (2017–present)[40]
- Mark Takano, CA-39 (2013–present)[39]
- Jill Tokuda, HI-02 (2023–present)[38]
- Ritchie Torres, NY-15 (2021–present)[41]
- State legislators
- Rich Gordon, state assemblymember from the 24th district (2010–2016)[37]
- County officials
- Ken Yeager, former Santa Clara County supervisor (2006–2018)[37]
- Judges
- LaDoris Cordell, former California Superior Court judge[37]
- Organizations
- AAPI Victory Fund[42]
- ASPIRE PAC[43]
- Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC[40]
- Equality California[44]
- Equality PAC[37]
- LGBTQ+ Victory Fund[45]
- Labor unions
- Association of Flight Attendants[46]
- California Federation of Labor[47]
- California Professional Firefighters[48]
- IBEW Locals 617 and 1245[49][50]
- National Nurses United[51]
- South Bay Labor Council[52]
- Newspapers
Ahmed Mostafa (D)
- Organizations
Peter Ohtaki (R)
Karl Ryan (R)
- Political parties
Joe Simitian (D)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[i] |
Margin of error |
Rishi Kumar (D) |
Sam Liccardo (D) |
Evan Low (D) |
Julie Lythcott- Haims (D) |
Peter Ohtaki (R) |
Karl Ryan (R) |
Joe Simitian (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Problosky Research[A] | January 21–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5% | 7.5% | 16% | 7.3% | 4% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 13.3% | 9.4%[j] | 33.8% |
| RMG Research[B] | January 3–4, 2024 | 426 (LV) | ± 4.7 | 6% | 13% | 11% | 5% | 2% | — | 12% | 2%[k] | 46% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[C] | November 2023 | 400 (LV) | ? | 7% | 16% | 5% | — | 6% | 9% | 12% | 11%[l] | 33% |
Initial certified results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Sam Liccardo | 38,489 | 21.1 | |
| Democratic | Evan Low | 30,249 | 16.6 | |
| Democratic | Joe Simitian | 30,249 | 16.6 | |
| Republican | Peter Ohtaki | 23,275 | 12.8 | |
| Democratic | Peter Dixon | 14,673 | 8.1 | |
| Democratic | Rishi Kumar | 12,377 | 6.8 | |
| Republican | Karl Ryan | 11,557 | 6.3 | |
| Democratic | Julie Lythcott-Haims | 11,383 | 6.2 | |
| Democratic | Ahmed Mostafa | 5,811 | 3.2 | |
| Democratic | Greg Tanaka | 2,421 | 1.3 | |
| Democratic | Joby Bernstein | 1,651 | 0.9 | |
| Total votes | 182,135 | 100.0 | ||
Aftermath
The Los Angeles Times pointed out that Low and Simitian had no incentive to request a recount, which could potentially lock them out of the general election.[5] Both campaigns released statements indicating that they intend to compete in the general election.[66] However, local media reported that a poll had been sent to voters testing a three-way race as well as two-way races between Liccardo and each of his opponents, leading to speculation that Liccardo's campaign would ask for a recount.[67] On April 9, officials in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties confirmed that two residents of the district had requested a recount: Jonathan Padilla, who served as finance director on Liccardo's 2014 mayoral campaign and donated $1,000 to his 2024 congressional campaign, and Pacifica resident Dan Stegink.[7] Stegink later withdrew his request.[68]
Low's campaign alleged that Liccardo was behind the requests, which they called "a page right out of Trump's political playbook using dirty tricks to attack democracy and subvert the will of the voters." Liccardo's campaign denied responsibility, though they maintained the recount was necessary, saying "every vote should be counted."[69] Padilla, a "longtime Silicon Valley political insider," did not answer questions from local media about the source of the funds for the costly recount. Eshoo, who endorsed Simitian, called for transparency in the recount process.[70] In his recount request, Padilla wrote that he was "not coordinating or communicating with any candidate or candidates’ agents" and made "this request on behalf of Evan Low."[71] However, Low's campaign reaffirmed that he did not support the recount and called Padilla's statement "disingenuous."[72]
Padilla submitted a $12,000 deposit for the recount on April 12. He opted for a machine recount, in which ballots are re-screened by a machine, rather than a much more expensive manual recount, in which volunteers would count each ballot by hand. Election officials estimated the cost of the machine recount at around $80,000, whereas a manual recount could have cost upwards of $400,000.[73] The recount began on April 15.[68]
According to reporting by KNTV, the recount is being funded by $12,000 checks from the newly-formed super PAC "Count the Vote" signed by James Sutton, an attorney who had previously represented Liccardo.[74] On April 19, Santa Clara County Government Attorneys Association president Max Zarzana filed a complaint with the Federal Elections Commission, alleging that the Liccardo campaign concocted a "secret scheme to illegally coordinate with a newly-formed dark money Super PAC to do his CD-16 recount bidding" and noted Liccardo's past connections with those involved in requesting the recount. Zarzana also highlighted Liccardo's history of "backroom deals" including violations of the California Public Records Act for which he was previously fined $500,000.[75]
Post-recount results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Sam Liccardo | |||
| Democratic | Evan Low | |||
| Democratic | Joe Simitian | |||
| Republican | Peter Ohtaki | |||
| Democratic | Peter Dixon | |||
| Democratic | Rishi Kumar | |||
| Republican | Karl Ryan | |||
| Democratic | Julie Lythcott-Haims | |||
| Democratic | Ahmed Mostafa | |||
| Democratic | Greg Tanaka | |||
| Democratic | Joby Bernstein | |||
| Total votes | 100.0 | |||
General election
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[i] |
Margin of error |
Sam Liccardo (D) |
Evan Low (D) |
Joe Simitian (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners (D)[D] | April 5–8, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 26% | 21% | 20% | 24% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[76] | Solid D | February 2, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[77] | Solid D | March 10, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[78] | Safe D | February 23, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[79] | Safe D | February 5, 2024 |
| CNalysis[80] | Solid D | November 16, 2023 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Sam Liccardo | |||
| Democratic | TBD | |||
| Total votes | ||||
| Democratic hold | ||||
Notes
- ^ In the 2016 California's 62nd State Assembly district election, incumbent Assemblymember Autumn Burke faced off against two write-in candidates who tied with 32 primary votes each.[5]
- ^ This district was numbered as the 18th district prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle.
- ^ $3,000 of this total was self-funded by Bernstein
- ^ $1,400,000 of this total was self-funded by Dixon
- ^ $15,000 of this total was self-funded by Kumar
- ^ $13,661 of this total was self-funded by Low
- ^ $13,182 of this total was self-funded by Tanaka
- ^ $40,000 of this total was self-funded by Ohtaki
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Peter Dixon (D) with 4.3%; Ahmed Mostafa (D) and Greg Tanaka (D) each with 2.3%; Joby Bernstein with 0.5%
- ^ Joby Bernstein (D), Peter Dixon (D), Ahmed Mostafa (D), and Greg Tanaka (D) with 0%; "Other" with 2%
- ^ Sally Lieber (D) with 7%; Josh Becker (D) with 4%; Joby Bernstein (D) with 1%
- Partisan clients
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Politico does report, however, that Assemblyman Marc Berman won't run for Congress, though we hadn't previously heard his name mentioned.
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- ^ "2024 House Race Ratings: Another Competitive Fight for Control". Cook Political Report. February 2, 2023. Archived from the original on February 3, 2023. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
- ^ "First 2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Archived from the original on March 22, 2021. Retrieved March 10, 2023.
- ^ "Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up". Sabato's Crystal Ball. February 23, 2023. Archived from the original on February 23, 2023. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 9, 2023. Archived from the original on November 3, 2023. Retrieved August 9, 2023.
- ^ "2024 House Forecast". November 20, 2023. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites