2024 United States presidential election in Michigan
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| Elections in Michigan |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Michigan is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Michigan voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1] Michigan is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.
A Midwestern state at the heart of the Rust Belt, no Republican presidential candidate has won Michigan with a majority since George H.W. Bush in 1988, and the last Republican to win by double digits was Ronald Reagan in his 49-state landslide four years earlier. The state was formerly part of the Blue Wall, having voted Democratic in every presidential election between 1992 and 2012, but only doing so by a double-digit margin in 1996 and 2008. Then, in 2016, Republican Donald Trump carried Michigan by a very narrow 0.23% in an unexpected sweep of the Midwest and Rust Belt which earned him a presidential victory, only to have the state flipped back into the Democratic column by Joe Biden four years later with a 2.78% margin of victory as the former lost the presidency to the latter. However, it was the worst margin for a victorious Democrat dating all the way back to the 2.01% margin of victory for John F. Kennedy in the state in 1960. Today, Michigan is purple to slightly blue, with Democrats holding all statewide offices since 2019, and is expected to be a crucial swing state in 2024, with polls indicating a tight race and most news organizations marking the state as a tossup.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3] If he wins the presidency without winning Michigan, he will be the first President to do so since Republican George W. Bush in 2004 and the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter in 1976. If he loses the presidency but carries the state, he will be the first presidential candidate to do so since fellow Democrat John Kerry in 2004.
On April 18, 2024, Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot. He has also been nominated by the Natural Law Party.[4]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
Incumbent United States President Joe Biden won the Democratic primary race, held on February 27, 2024.[5]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 625,221 | 81.1% | 115 | 115 | |
| Uncommitted | 101,623 | 13.2% | 2 | 2 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 22,865 | 3.0% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 20,684 | 2.7% | |||
| Write-in votes | 178 | <0.1% | |||
| Total: | 770,571 | 100% | 117 | 23 | 140 |
| Source: [6] | |||||
Republican primary
Former United States President Donald Trump won the Republican primary race, held on February 27, 2024.[7]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 761,163 | 68.1% | 12 | 12 | |
| Nikki Haley | 297,124 | 26.6% | 4 | 4 | |
| Uncommitted | 33,649 | 3.0% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 13,456 | 1.2% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 4,794 | 0.4% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 3,702 | 0.3% | |||
| Ryan Binkley | 2,348 | 0.2% | |||
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 1,077 | 0.1% | |||
| Total: | 1,117,313 | 100.0% | 16 | 16 | |
| Source: [8][9] | |||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[10] | Tossup | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Tossup | March 14, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Lean D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] | Tossup | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[14] | Tossup | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[15] | Lean R (flip) | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 708 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Marketing Resource Group | April 8–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 42% | 22%[b] |
| The Bullfinch Group | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Spry Strategies | March 25–28, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Echelon Insights[A] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| Emerson College | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 50% | – |
| CNN/SSRS | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,097 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| Mitchell Research[B] | March 15–16, 2024 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University | March 8–12, 2024 | 1,487 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–12, 2024 | 698 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| North Star Opinion Research[C] | February 22–25, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 13% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Emerson College | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| EPIC-MRA | February 13–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Fox News | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 47% | 7% |
| Target Insyght | January 4–10, 2024 | 800 (RV) | – | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Glengariff Group[D] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 47% | 14% |
| John Zogby Strategies | January 2–4, 2024 | 602 (LV) | – | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| CNN/SSRS | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| EPIC-MRA | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 820 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 17% |
| Marketing Resource Group | October 2–8, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 42% | 22% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 468 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 43% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[E] | September 26–27, 2023 | 679 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | September 7–12, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| EPIC-MRA | August 6–11, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 44% | 13% |
| Mitchell Research[B] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | 13% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[F] | Jul 8–10, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 45% | 44% | 9% |
| Prime Group[G] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
| 500 (RV) | – | 40% | 43% | 17%[c] | ||
| EPIC-MRA | June 8–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[F] | April 17–19, 2023 | 500 (V) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 42% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[H] | December 6–7, 2022 | 763 (V) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
| EPIC-MRA | November 30 – December 6, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Emerson College | October 28–31, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Emerson College | October 12–14, 2022 | 580 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| EPIC-MRA | September 15–19, 2022 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | August 15–16, 2022 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 19% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | February 1–4, 2022 | 632 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | 40% | 22% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[I] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 53% | 6% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 708 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Marketing Resource Group | April 8–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 37% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 13% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 39% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Mitchell Research[B] | March 15–16, 2024 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University | March 8–12, 2024 | 1,487 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 36% | 41% | 10% | 3% | 4% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–12, 2024 | 698 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Emerson College | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| Fox News | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 3% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 39% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 13% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies | March 25–28, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 43% | 9% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | March 14–17, 2024 | 616 (LV) | – | 39% | 41% | 6% | 14% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | December 28–30, 2023 | 832 (LV) | – | 37% | 39% | 9% | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 38% | 39% | 9% | 13% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 34% | 26% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 820 (LV) | – | 38% | 40% | 7% | 15% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,097 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 34% | 40% | 18% | 4% | 4% |
| CNN/SSRS | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 39% | 20% | 6% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 37% | 10% | 2% | 13% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 41% | 43% | 4% | 11% |
Hypothetical polling
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
- Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/The Hill | Mar 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 45% | 6% |
| Marketing Resource Group | October 2–8, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Glengariff Group[J] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
| CNN/SSRS | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 50% | 12% |
| EPIC-MRA | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 47% | 17% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 36% | 46% | 18% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 26% | 23% | 3% | 3% | 33% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 37% | 25% | 18% | 20% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | September 7–12, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Mitchell Research[B] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[F] | July 8–10, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 44% | 46% | 7% |
| EPIC-MRA | June 8–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[F] | April 17–19, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 39% | 30% | 13% | 2% | 15% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Michigan
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by MIRS
- ^ Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
- ^ Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
- ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by Citizens Awareness Project
- ^ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, a sponsor for the Democratic Party
- ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ^ Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved April 26, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gets spot on Michigan's ballot as Natural Law Party nominee". The Detroit News. Retrieved April 19, 2024.
- ^ Min Kim, Seung (February 27, 2024). "Trump and Biden win Michigan primary. But voters uncommitted to either candidate demand attention". Associated Press. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ Min Kim, Seung (February 27, 2024). "Trump and Biden win Michigan primary. But voters uncommitted to either candidate demand attention". Associated Press. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ^ "Secretary Benson releases 2024 presidential primary candidate list". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved December 8, 2023.[failed verification]
- ^ "2024 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. February 27, 2024. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 5, 2024. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
Categories:
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