2024 United States presidential election in Iowa
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| Elections in Iowa |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Iowa voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Although Iowa was considered both a swing and a bellwether state for decades, it voted significantly more Republican than the nation-at-large in both 2016 and 2020 and probably will not be as contested by the Democrats in 2024 as Republican Donald Trump won the state by a somewhat comfortable margin while losing nationally in the latter election, despite polls indicating a close race.
Furthermore, during the 2022 midterms, all three statewide incumbent Republicans (governor, secretary of agriculture, and secretary of state) won reelection by more than 18%, two of three statewide incumbent Democrats (28-year incumbent attorney general and 40-year incumbent treasurer) lost to Republican challengers, and the remaining incumbent Democrat (4-year incumbent auditor) won by less than 3,000 votes and 0.23%, further signifying Iowa's rightward shift.[2][3] Many news organizations predict Iowa to remain a likely to safe red state in 2024.[4]
In April 2023, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden officially announced a re-election campaign for 2024.[5] If he wins without the state again, he will become the first president since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 to win another term without carrying the state.
Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in April.
Caucuses
Democratic caucuses
During the Iowa Democratic caucuses, in-person caucusing focusing only on party business was held on January 15, but voting on candidates will be done exclusively via mail-in ballots from January 12 until Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. This was the result of a compromise between the Iowa Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Iowa traditionally holds its race first during the presidential primary and caucuses season, but the DNC originally wanted South Carolina to instead hold its race first on February 3.[6]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 12,337 | 90.4% | 40 | ||
| Uncommitted | 614 | 4.5% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 394 | 2.9% | |||
| Marianne Williamson[a] | 307 | 2.2% | |||
| Total: | 13,652 | 100.0% | 40 | 46 | |
| Source: [7] | |||||
Republican caucuses
The Iowa Republican caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, the first-in-the-nation nomination contest of the 2024 Republican primaries. Former president Donald Trump won the primary with the largest margin of victory for a non-incumbent in the Iowa caucuses. Trump's overwhelming victory in the state established his position early as the frontrunner.
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 30–40%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 56,243 | 51.00% | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| Ron DeSantis | 23,491 | 21.30% | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| Nikki Haley | 21,027 | 19.07% | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 8,430 | 7.64% | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Ryan Binkley | 768 | 0.70% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asa Hutchinson | 188 | 0.17% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other | 90 | 0.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 35 | 0.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 110,272 | 100.00% | 40 | 0 | 40 |
Libertarian caucuses
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The Iowa Libertarian caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, its first as a recognized party in the state.[9] 2022 U.S. Senate candidate Chase Oliver from Georgia won the non-binding preferential vote with 42.7% of the vote.[10]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Oliver | 38 | 42.70 |
| Michael Rectenwald | 15 | 16.85 |
| Mike ter Maat | 12 | 13.48 |
| Joshua Smith | 12 | 13.48 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 4 | 4.49 |
| Mario Perales | 2 | 2.25 |
| Robert Sansone | 2 | 2.25 |
| Jacob Hornberger | 1 | 1.12 |
| Lars Mapstead | 1 | 1.12 |
| Art Olivier | 1 | 1.12 |
| None of the above | 1 | 1.12 |
| Total | 89 | 100.00 |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[13] | Likely R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Likely R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] | Likely R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[16] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[17] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co.[A] | February 25–28, 2024 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 33% | 19%[B] |
| Cygnal (R)[C] | February 13–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| John Zogby Strategies | January 2–4, 2024 | 500 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 10% |
| Emerson College | December 15–17, 2023 | 1,094 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| Emerson College | May 19–22, 2023 | 1,064 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Emerson College | October 2–4, 2022 | 959 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Cygnal (R)[C] | October 2–4, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | 8% |
| Cygnal (R)[C] | July 13–14, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[c][C] | February 20–22, 2022 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 53% | 38% | 9% |
| Selzer & Co. | November 7–10, 2021 | 658 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[C] | October 18–19, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 41% | 5% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | May 19–22, 2023 | 1,064 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 38% | 17% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Iowa
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "Iowa Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ Murray, Isabella. "The congressional race that could indicate just how red Iowa has shifted". ABC News. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
- ^ "Biden announces he is running for re-election, framing 2024 as a choice between 'more rights or fewer'". NBC News. April 25, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ "DNC's new calendar, will release caucus results on Super Tuesday". Iowa Public Radio. October 6, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Results". Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "Iowa Republican Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers.
- ^ "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces it will hold caucuses Jan. 15".
- ^ Bunge, Mike (January 16, 2024). "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces the winner of its statewide Presidential caucus". KIMT 3. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
- ^ Bunge, Mike (January 16, 2024). "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces the winner of its statewide Presidential caucus". KIMT. Allen Media Broadcasting. Archived from the original on January 16, 2024. Retrieved January 16, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
