2024 United States presidential election in Alaska
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Alaska is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Alaska voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Alaska has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] This is the first presidential election following the state's adoption of Measure 2, which institutes ranked-choice voting for all statewide general elections.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]
Ever since Alaska started voting in presidential races in 1960, the only time its electoral votes did not go to the Republican nominee was when incumbent Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in a landslide in 1964. Alaska has continued to vote Republican, but not as strongly in recent years. In 2020, Trump only won Alaska by 10 percentage points, much less than Republicans in the past like George W. Bush's 26% victory in the state in 2004.
Primary elections
Republican caucus
The Alaska Republican caucuses were held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 9,243 | 87.6% | 29 | 29 | |
| Nikki Haley | 1,266 | 12.0% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 45 | 0.4% | |||
| Total: | 10,554 | 100.00% | 29 | 29 | |
| Source: [4] | |||||
Democratic caucus
The Alaska Democratic caucus was held on April 13, 2024. Joe Biden was the only person on the ballot and won the caucus via voice vote with 15 pledged delegates.[5]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | Voice vote | 15 | 15 | ||
| Total: | 15 | 15 | |||
| Source:[6] | |||||
General election
Candidates
Independent candidate Cornel West will appear on the ballot as the nominee of the Aurora Party, a party that only exists in Alaska and only has ballot access for presidential elections.[7]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[8] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Likely R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Likely R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[12] | Likely R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[13] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | February 23 – March 2, 2024 | 1,120 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 13–18, 2023 | 1,375 (LV) | – | 45% | 37% | 19% |
| Alaska Survey Research | July 18–21, 2023 | 1,336 (LV) | – | 43% | 36% | 21% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | October 13–18, 2023 | 1,375 (LV) | – | 37% | 29% | 17% | 17% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Alaska
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "Alaska Ballot Measure 2, Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting and Campaign Finance Laws Initiative (2020)". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Ruskin, Liz (March 4, 2024). "Trump or Haley? Alaska Republicans vote Tuesday". Alaska Public Radio. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ Bohrer, Becky; Gruver, Mead (April 13, 2024). "Biden wins more delegates in Wyoming and Alaska as he heads toward Democratic nomination". The AP. Retrieved April 14, 2024.
- ^ "Alaska Democratic Primary Election Results". Ballotpedia. April 13, 2024. Retrieved March 21, 2024.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (December 14, 2023). "Cornel West, independent candidate, says he will be on Alaska ballot for president in 2024". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved December 16, 2023.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
