2008 United States Senate election in Louisiana
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   Landrieu: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Kennedy: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Louisiana |
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 Government |
The 2008 United States Senate election in Louisiana was held on November 4, 2008. This was the first time since the 1970s that Louisiana used primaries for federal races. Incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu won a third term by 6.39 percentage points despite being forecast as one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats during 2008. She had received praise and wide publicity for her advocacy after Hurricane Katrina, particularly during hearings regarding FEMA's response to the disaster. This is the last time that Democrats won any statewide election in Louisiana other than Governor.
Landrieu’s opponent John Kennedy garnered allegations of being a political opportunist after switching parties from Democrat to Republican in 2007.[1] He won the state's other U.S. Senate seat in 2016 and 2022 as a Republican, having unsuccessfully run as a Democrat for it in 2004.
Background
Landrieu's increased vulnerability was supposed to be the result of a significant drop in the state's African-American population after Hurricane Katrina, especially in Landrieu's home city of New Orleans. Louisiana also elected a Republican senator in 2004 and President Bush carried the state twice, in 2004 with 58 percent of the vote. Also, Republican Congressman Bobby Jindal won the 2007 gubernatorial election with 54 percent of the vote.
Major candidates
Democratic
- Mary Landrieu, incumbent U.S. Senator
Republican
- John Neely Kennedy, State Treasurer and Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2004
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[2] | Lean D | October 23, 2008 |
| CQ Politics[3] | Lean D | October 31, 2008 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[4] | Lean D | November 2, 2008 |
| Real Clear Politics[5] | Lean D | October 23, 2008 |
Polling
| Poll Source | Dates administered | Mary Landrieu (D) |
John Kennedy (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | October 21, 2008 | 53% | 43% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 25, 2008 | 54% | 41% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 17, 2008 | 56% | 39% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 9, 2008 | 49% | 44% |
| Southern Media & Opinion Research | July 1, 2008 | 46% | 40% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 28, 2008 | 47% | 44% |
| Southern Media & Opinion Research | March 26 – April 9, 2008 | 50% | 38% |
| Survey USA | December 6–10, 2007 | 46% | 42% |
Results
Though she was considered one of the most vulnerable incumbent senators in 2008, Landrieu won reelection by a margin of 121,121 votes and 6.39%, over-performing Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama in the state by more than 12 percentage points.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mary Landrieu (incumbent) | 988,298 | 52.11% | +0.41% | |
| Republican | John Kennedy | 867,177 | 45.72% | -2.58% | |
| Libertarian | Richard Fontanesi | 18,590 | 0.98% | n/a | |
| Independent | Jay Patel | 13,729 | 0.72% | n/a | |
| Independent | Robert Stewart | 8,780 | 0.46% | n/a | |
| Majority | 121,121 | 6.39% | +2.99 | ||
| Turnout | 1,896,574 | 100% | |||
| Democratic hold | Swing | ||||
Parishes that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Catahoula (Largest town: Jonesville)
Parishes that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Iberia (Largest city: New Iberia)
- Jefferson (Largest town: Metairie)
- Jefferson Davis (Largest city: Jennings)
- Plaquemines (Largest community: Belle Chasse)
- Saint Bernard (Largest community: Chalmette)
- Saint Mary (Largest city: Morgan City)
- Vermilion (Largest city: Abbeville)
See also
References
- ^ Scott, Robert (April 27, 2014). "Treasurer bolts to GOP | NOLA.com". Archived from the original on April 27, 2014. Retrieved March 15, 2021.
- ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
- ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
External links
- Elections Division from the Louisiana Secretary of State
- U.S. Congress candidates for Louisiana at Project Vote Smart
- Louisiana U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
- Louisiana U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets